Saudi and UAE Business Activity Set for Stronger Q3 Momentum, Standard Chartered Says

Business activity across Saudi Arabia and the UAE is heading into the third quarter of 2026 with stronger underlying momentum, according to a new Standard Chartered report, which points to resilient domestic demand, improving regional trade conditions, and continued progress on economic diversification as the key drivers.

Consumer Spending & POS Growth

The bank's analysis highlights that Saudi point-of-sale transactions — a widely used proxy for consumer spending — rose 6% year-on-year in May 2026, returning to levels last seen in January and signalling that domestic consumption is holding up despite regional uncertainty. That momentum has since accelerated: separate Saudi government data shows POS transactions surging 34% at the start of July, with freight and logistics spending leading the increase.

Macro GDP Trajectory & OECD Forecasts

The broader growth picture is holding steady too. Saudi Arabia's General Authority for Statistics confirmed the Kingdom's GDP expanded 3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting broad-based growth across major sectors. The OECD has echoed that optimism, projecting Saudi GDP growth of 3.2% for the full year, accelerating to 4.3% in 2027.

Non-Oil Resilience

For a region that spent much of the first half of 2026 absorbing the economic shock of conflict-related disruption to energy exports and shipping routes, the Q3 signal from Standard Chartered is a notable one: non-oil, consumer-facing activity is proving considerably more resilient than the energy sector itself — a distinction that matters for any business whose growth plans depend on regional consumer demand rather than oil-linked revenue.